When Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine began a little more than a year ago, the pundits predicted that unless Ukraine acceded to all of Russia’s territorial demands, the nation would be invaded and dissolved, grafted onto Russia as was Crimea. 

Didn’t quite work out that way, did it? As of this moment, Russia is in the grips of a form of civil war, where one set of armed forces-the mercenary Wagner Group- is directly pitted against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The Wagner group was the main fighting force in view of the near-collapse of the regular military. There has been actual fighting between the two groups inside Mother Russia. Vladimir Putin is reliably reported to have fled the capital of Moscow when the Wagner Group was advancing on the city.

     Russia’s Forces in Ukraine Have Been Weakened Beyond Repair

It is generous to say the Russian military has performed subpar. Every knowledgeable authority has weighed in with the opinion that the Russian forces are the worst example of a so-called superpower. They began their invasion with massive superiority in equipment, combatants, and an infrastructure capable of supplying an army. The Ukraine suffered from supposedly inexperienced military leaders, an untested young President, and a sorry dearth of equipment and other supplies. At least that’s how it looked.

When the Russians invaded, they learned the mistruths the world had believed. The purported superiority of equipment failed to take into account incompetent training and maintenance. The superiority in numbers did not account for the lack of training or desire by most russian troops. 

We quickly learned that Ukraine did better with its aging weaponry and aircraft than Russia did with the newest items. We saw that Ukraine, whose troops had been fighting Russians for eight years. had many skilled and battle-ready troops willing to die for their country.

Zelensky is a Hero and Putin is a Pariah

President Zelensky captured the hearts and minds of the West and its allies, and has received the training, equipment, and economic and diplomatic support needed for the struggle. Putin, on the other hand, is the object of numerous economic sanctions and has been criminally indicted for kidnapping children from Ukraine and transporting them to Russia.

From this point on, as world leaders have stated, Ukraine will receive all the assistance and equipment they need, including F-16 fighter jets. Russia’s dwindling band of allies willing to break the sanctions are going to have to rethink their positions. China is experiencing economic and political turmoil and needs the West to improve. (China may now think twice or thrice before planning to invade Taiwan.) India has been bailing out Putin by buying Russian oil; Modi was just feted with a state dinner in DC, and watches Putin hiding from the Wagner Group; which way do you think he will turn? 

What Happens Next in Russia?

One thing is certain: without the Wagner Group fighting with them, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation face annihilation at the hands of a better-armed, better trained, and highly motivated Ukraine. 

Putin began the war by denying the existence of Ukraine as a nation or culture. He vowed to destroy any such notion by forcibly incorporating the entire nation into Russia and “Russifying” it by language, religion and culture.

Right now Russia is in serious danger of not only losing what they stole in Crimea and elsewhere, but actually seeing Ukrainian troops enter Russia proper. If you think Putin’s hold on power is starting to look rather tenuous, wait and see how something like that plays out within Russia.

Right now, Ukraine’s future looks as solid as the Rock of Gibraltar and as sunny as  good day here in Tampa, Florida. Russia can only slog on so much longer before their military completely collapses. Putin is going to have to come up with some way to extract himself from this horrific disaster and manage to remain in power and avoid the criminal prosecution in the Hague.

Not too bright a future for a thug who was going to dismantle another nation. His departure will be the best thing to happen to Russia since the fall of communism.

A great opportunity for Russia to take advantage of the freedom it gained when it overthrew communism over thirty years ago. Putin hasn’t been any better.

A  “new” Russia would start by immediately ending the war they started. Then they can work on the internal reforms needed to turn them from a despotic oligarchy into an actual nation.